| Wall Street's bet
Investors think it makes sense.
Yahoo's shares have rocketed from the high $50s in November to $127
3/4 on Thursday. No. 2 portal Excite closed at $73 1/8 a share, up from
around $30 in January.
Infoseek closed at $35 1/8, up 5/8, after it announced the deal with
Disney. It traded at around $10 a share at the beginning of the year.
"The first quarter of this year was pretty astounding," says analyst
Patrick Keane of Jupiter Communications. While much of the stock
run-up has been speculative, "the portal space is now serious business."
It's a risky business. There are few barriers to entry, and most analysts
say there are already too many portals and that a shakeout is inevitable.
Someday, "you'll turn on the computer and there will be three big
networks," predicts Jeff Mallett, Yahoo's chief operating officer.
Even that projection might be optimistic if lots of Internet users decide
that they don't need to go through a portal.
"For 90% of the people looking for sports information, a search engine
really isn't necessary," says CBS New Media Group President Derek
Reisfield. "I can go directly to a couple of sites and be pretty happy. The
industry structure is not set in stone."
Advertising prospects are particularly murky. Most companies are still
testing the medium and only sign short-term contracts.
There's little solid data to show that banner ads on a Web site have much
impact on viewers. Indeed, there isn't even a single, generally accepted
measure--like television's Nielsen ratings--to determine how many
people visit a site.
The business also could suffer if lots of consumers start to use software
that filters ads from the screen.
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